The Hogs: Week 13

Today is the final regular season game for the Arkansas Razorbacks.

It won't be the Hogs' final game overall, since their 9-2 record (5-2 in conference) will earn them at least a decent bowl berth. And finishing 10-2 with a victory over the always-tough LSU Tigers might well get them into a BCS bowl. The Hogs would need help, of course, to make their first BCS bowl game. But depending on how Auburn fares against South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game, it is certainly not out of the question.

A couple of points to note on this afternoon's game against LSU in the Battle of the Boot:

First, it is a rivalry that - historically - favors LSU. The Tigers own an all-time record of 34-19-2 against the Razorbacks (including a stretch of 12-0-1 from 1930 to 1965). Arkansas has a managed a 7-11 record against LSU since the teams began playing annually in 1992 when Arkansas entered the Southeastern Conference.

Second, the matchups of the past few years have been among the most exciting in the SEC. In the past five years, every game has been decided by 5 points or less. After two amazing wins in a row in 2007 and 2008, the Hogs lost a true heart breaker last year in overtime as LSU escaped by a score of 33-30.

This is a game almost impossible to predict, given how the teams have played this year. LSU's Les Miles is one of the more baffling head coaches in major college football, prone to odd mistakes in crucial situations but just as able to snatch victories from the seeming jaws of defeat.

The Razorbacks have been up-and-down at times, though this season has to be considered a success on the whole. Arkansas' inability to produce in the second half against Alabama doomed the Hogs in that game, and the fourth-quarter defensive meltdown against Auburn led to defeat in a game that would otherwise have handed Auburn its first (and only) loss of the season. But on the other hand, the Razorbacks have risen to another level since the emergence of Knile Davis as the go-to running back. And the defense has improved over the course of the season as well. This Arkansas team has definitely gotten better as the season has worn on.

"The Boot" Trophy

Before the prediction, a couple of good links: Matt Jones of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette does a good job of pointing out how far Davis has progressed this year, to the point that he should be considered among the SEC's leading RB's. Given that Davis has been often injured in the past, this year is the first time that he's really been able to showcase his talents over an entire season. And if he can stay healthy (which is a big "if," obviously), there is no reason that Davis shouldn't come back next fall to be a top-tier back in all of college football.

Also, ESPN blogger Chris Low has written a nice post on the way in which Saturday's game can be "season defining" for the Hogs if they can come away with a win. The football season has been a different story for Arkansas since that Auburn loss, and the Razorbacks are playing at as a high level now as they have since Head Coach Bobby Petrino took the reins three years ago. A 10-win regular season is tough to get anywhere, but especially in the ruthless competition of the SEC. They can't make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship at this point, but the Hogs still have plenty to play for.

Here's the prediction:

Last week: Arkansas 38, Mississippi State 31 (OT) (My pick: Arkansas 35, Mississippi State 17)

Arkansas' Overall Record: 9-2 (Me: 10-1)

Today's Game: Arkansas Razorbacks Vs. LSU Tigers

Location: War Memorial Stadium - Little Rock, AR

Prediction: Arkansas 31, LSU 28

Reason:
The Arkansas-LSU matchup is never easy to predict. I think it's fair to say that the Battle of the Boot was originally something of a manufactured rivalry, designed to help foster excitement for a game by two SEC West teams without a real 'natural' primary rival in the division -- and complete with an unearned moniker and trophy. (The other four teams in the SEC West have in-state rivalries that represent those teams' most important season-to-season games: Auburn-Alabama in the Iron Bowl and Ole Miss-Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.) But in the past few years, the Battle of the Boot has earned the right to be considered a true rivalry game with a lot of passion on both sides. For the Hogs' part the 2002 "Miracles on Markham" game showed that they should never be underestimated. And the 2007 triple-OT win over LSU in Baton Rouge - the same year LSU nevertheless went on to win the BCS national championship - ranks as one of the best wins for Arkansas football since it entered SEC.


A couple of friends with whom I trade e-mails each week during the football season think that we are going to beat LSU decisively. I wish I had that kind of confidence. Let me say that I do think LSU is due for a reality check. Les Miles' club has caught an awful lot of breaks on its way to a 10-1 record. And I also think that Arkansas is the team that could give them that kind of a comeuppance.

I am going on record to predict a close Arkansas victory. War Memorial Stadium is an excellent home venue for the Hogs. It is a relatively small stadium, with a capacity of only about 55,000. But the bowl-configuration and the excitement that the Little Rock setting brings means that the fans are always rowdy for big games there (and that the atmosphere will be LOUD). That gives the Hogs a definite home field advantage, which I think will prove decisive especially in the second half. Les Miles' unorthodox style sometimes invites criticism, but make no mistake that he is an excellent coach who will have his players ready for this game. In the end, I think Bobby Petrino - no slouch himself in the coaching department - will guide our Hogs to a season-ending win in the fourth quarter. If that happens, then the Hogs can hopefully look forward to a great bowl invitation and will have accomplished another milestone in Petrino's march to the upper echelons of SEC play.

And given that it is probably the final time we'll see QB Ryan Mallett in a regular season game, this game will be one for the history books. In his tenure as the Hogs QB, Mallett has certainly impressed. He's been a joy to watch.