It would be nice to say about the upcoming
Arkansas-LSU game, "So it comes down to this." And then the winner goes to the SEC Championship Game and - quite possibly - the national championship.
For
LSU, that is certainly the case. The Tigers are (deservedly) ranked #1 in the country. Keep winning and they play for the BCS Championship in New Orleans in January. But for the
Hogs, things aren't nearly so simple. The talking heads over at
ESPN (including "BCS guru" Brad Edwards) are predicting that even an Arkansas win over LSU likely won't be enough to push the Hogs past the #3 ranking they currently hold. (Edwards attributes this to the 1/3 of the BCS formula that is made up of the computer rankings, which has consistently showed favoritism toward LSU this season.)
It gets even more complicated, though. Even with a win over the top-ranked Tigers, the Razorbacks wouldn't be assured of a trip to Atlanta to play in the SEC Championship. That's because the there would be a three-way tie atop the SEC West standings, with Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU all owning 7-1 conference records. The tie breaker formula wouldn't likely favor the Hogs because Alabama is currently ranked ahead of them and would be the probable representative from the SEC West in the SEC Championship Game with a win over Auburn on Saturday.
What does all this mean? Will the Hogs get left out in the cold even if they stun the Tigers in Baton Rouge? Maybe. Obviously, the best case scenario is a Hogs win coupled with an Alabama loss to Auburn. (The latter isn't likely to happen, though like all rivalries the Iron Bowl is capable of surprises.) I suppose the best that can be said is that the Hogs need to control what they can control and hope the rest of it works itself out. They need to beat LSU, retain the Golden Boot trophy for another year, and let the chips fall where they may.
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| Greg Alperin: Loves the Hogs |
So now on to the prediction. All the experts are picking LSU to win. The game is in Baton Rouge. The line currently shows LSU favored by 12.5 points.
And you know what?
I'm picking the Hogs.
As my friend and fellow Hog fan Greg Alperin told me on the phone earlier this week, "You gotta go with your heart, baby!"
Bonus Link: ESPN's Ivan Maisel has written
a great piece on the impact of Arkansas WR and special teams dynamo Joe Adams and LSU kicker Brad Wing in the game on Friday. It is worth
checking out.
Special Note: Our thoughts and prayers go out to the family of Arkansas TE Garrett Uekman who
died suddenly last Sunday. It was a terribly sad event and both Uekman's family and the Razorback football team are in deep mourning over the loss of a young man who was, by all accounts, a great teammate and a great person. May he rest in peace.
Now on to the numbers...
Last week: Arkansas 44, Mississippi State 17
Arkansas' record: 10-1 (Me: 9-1)
This week: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. LSU Tigers (Friday, November 25th at 1:30 pm CST)
Location: Tiger Stadium - Baton Rouge, LA
Prediction: Hogs 31, Tigers 24
Reason: The annual
Battle of the Golden Boot has turned into a great Thanksgiving week rivalry for Arkansas and LSU over the past few years. Arkansas has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. It will be a hard fought contest, matching LSU's outstanding defense against Arkansas' high-powered offense. Many experts have pointed to the way the Hogs were beaten decisively by Alabama early in the season. Those experts haven't paid close attention to the way the two rivalries (Hogs/Tide and Hogs/Tigers) have gone the past few years, when Arkansas has been forced to play Alabama early in the season before becoming battle-tested by the rigorous SEC schedule. Both teams have a lot to play for. And I think this one will be a more exciting game to watch than the "Game of the Century" between Alabama and LSU was earlier this fall. In the end, I think that "Game of the Century" label may be better applied to the game we're fixing to watch. Time will tell. Go Hogs.
Labels: 2011 Football Season, Arkansas Razorbacks, Battle of the Boot